2026-05-31

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Horm (39.5%, -18.0%) 9/10
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? (14.5%, -13.0%) 9/10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? (7.5%, -8.0%) 9/10
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? (12.5%, -12.0%) 8/10
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? (24.5%, -9.0%) 8/10
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? (69.5%, -8.0%) 8/10
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? (74.7%, +8.0%) 8/10
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia lea (100.0%, +82.5%) 7/10

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Horm (39.5%, -18.0%)

Polymarket bet on Trump lifting Hormuz blockade by June 15 drops 18% to 39.5% with $27.6M volume.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Market gives only 14.5% chance of US announcing Iran ceasefire extension by June 3, down 13 points.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Odds of US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7 fall to 7.5% with $42M traded, signaling low expectations.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May now at 12.5% probability after 12% drop, with $41.5M volume.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Chance of Claude 5 release by June 30 falls 9 points to 24.5%, reflecting lowered market anticipation.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Probability of US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 drops 8% to 69.5%, still likely but less certain.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Market now 74.7% confident MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by June 30, up 8 points with $35.9M volume.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00

Kerry-Lynne Findlay seen as certain winner of BC Conservative leadership at 100% probability, up 82.5%.

rss · unknown · 5月31日 13:00